Monday, February 9, 2009

an ambien induced diatribe, my apology for shitty spelling and lack of coherency

the stimulus plan is starting to piss me off. Republicans are stupid, they are dragging our economy into the ground, and grandstanding and delaying necessary immediate action because they are partisan pieces of excrement, not fit for any toilet except for maybe Joe the plumber's. Republicans are screaming this bill is not bi-partisan blah blah blah. The bill that went from the house to the senate was modified considerably to fit republican demands... demands that don't make sense. Because of their puerile, pompous, piss-poor, judgment skills, the stimulus bill has ballooned to 42% tax cuts. The bill needs to focus on job creation, extension of unemployment benefits, infrastructure improvement, and support for states who are desperately lacking money. This support for the states would make it so that they don't have to fire city employees (i.e. police officers, teachers, firemen etc.) because of a lack of funding... thus preventing a further ascension of the unemployment rates. No... Instead, the republicans wish to emphasize tax cuts and trimming the scope of the bill down. I will address these two issues separately because they are stupid, stupid, stupid. First tax cuts. I'll keep this brief because I could pontificate for hours. The republicans want to make it so those paying income taxes can keep a higher percentage of their wages. Sounds good right? Well, this does minimal amounts of good to those that DON'T HAVE a job. Creating more jobs is the answer, not giving more money to those that have jobs. Would you rather get an extra 20% of zero back or 5% of a dollar. If you don't make anything and have no taxable income, it's pointless to get a percentage of that income back. Okay, so some will say, putting money directly in some people's hands, even if it's in the wrong peoples hands will be good for the economy. To a small extent this is true, yes, they may spend some money, which creates more demand and a slight need for supply which keeps or creates jobs. But just how effective is it in doing that? Below is a chart of the amount of stimulus to GDP you get from various measures.

burnett-20090129.jpg

Tax cuts... 1.02-1.29 for the important ones. a lot of those falling in the 1.02 category. for every dollar spent on a tax rebate, 1.02 is generated... hey, it least it's positive... go republicans! but wait... what if we instead spent the money on something else, what would be the effect on our gdp and thus our economy? take a look for yourselves. every dollar spent on food stamps generates 1.73 in economic growth, every dollar spent on infrastructure creates 1.59 dollars in growth, extending unemployment benefits, 1.64 for every dollar. and giving aid to the states, 1.36 dollars per dollar spent. Food Stamps should be a no brainer. people with food stamps will immediately spend that money, and it will have a multiplier effect because it is cash now circulating in the system, this is why it has such a high stimulative effect. The same is basically the same with extending unemployment benefits. these people need the money to buy groceries, pay rent, etc, and therefore it gets spent right away and has a multiplier effect. So now you've immediately infused the economy with some short term stimulus, and eased the burden on the seven and a half percent of people who are without jobs, as well as anyone they may give their money to... small businesses, grocery stores whatever. allowing jobs to remain instead of disappearing like a lepers limbs. Now the next order of business is creating new jobs for those 10s of millions of workers that are unemployed. Infrastructure improvement does this. It immediately creates new jobs, and oh my gosh... here's the novel part of it. It's something we desperately need. You are creating jobs for people which will create and repair the very fabric upon which our society is made. So we get jobs, and we get cool shit like better transportation, education, medical treatment as a bonus. and the majority of this money appropriated for these projects would have a relatively quick impact because they are projects that are desperately needed and ready to begin work. Okay, so now we create jobs... yay... One last key, holding on to jobs that are in risk, and raising morale. That's where state funding comes in. Giving money to the states is not the most fiscally productive of the allocation of funds (though it is head and shoulders above the tax cuts which republicans have managed to bloat up to 42% of the bill). So, state funding allows states (which currently have deficits and can't afford to keep state employees) from having to let them go. This makes it so the unemployment rate doesn't continue to spiral downward, and it boosts the morale of the people by keeping them in their jobs. Republicans are stupid. look at facts, pass the bill, and do it quickly every single day people are losing jobs, and frankly the blood is on your greedy old wrinkled up machiavellian hands.
Okay, the scope of the bill... how big it is. Republicans are astonished that the bill is 800 billion dollars ish. To put things in perspective, WWII time spending (what got us out of the depression according to some when compared to GDP proportionally is striking). If we were to do what we did during the wwII era and allocate the same % of GDP to stimulus, it would be between 2 and 3 trillion dollars. that's three to four times the amount that is set to be sent. Well, did that huge amount of spending help in WWII times, damn straight it did. We need to go broad and quickly and decisively 800 billion is a paltry number compared to what history has said has worked. So quit saying the damn bill is entirely too big. look at history... or you could listen to almost every recognizable economist that says that the risks we can't afford to make are to wait to long, or to not make the stimulus big enough. It's not that I think that 800 Billion isn't a big number... I most certainly do... but This is money we need, and we're not just throwing it down an Iraq hole... freudian slip, I mean rabbit hole.

How much has the war in Iraq cost us you ask?
about 800 billion dollars (and another 12 billion) each month... (5,000$ a second if you're looking to put it into context). So, 800 billion is worth the war in iraq but not the stimulus. in the stimulus, we will get better infrastructure, state funding, food stamps, jobs, and an elevated sense of morale.

In Iraq 800 billion got us the following: (according to january 27th statistics)
142,000 american troops still in Iraq
4236 us troops killed
31002 troops wounded, a lot of them being serious brain or spinal injuries... AND that number doesn't include any psychological conditions that may have resulted.
30 to 40 percent of troops that return home develop severe psychological conditions
we've lost 68 helicopters... hmmm... i hear they're expensive

not to mention what the poor iraqis got out of it. I won't go into detail here because this is more about what the us incurred as a result of the 800 billion it spent. but here is a link to a website with all those numbers, and how 100s of thousand iraqi civilians have been killed, how malnutrition is out of control etc. etc. etc. http://usliberals.about.com/od/homelandsecurit1/a/IraqNumbers.htm
not to mention the fact that this war actually strengthened Iran by bringing iranian influence into iraq, and it also brought in al-qaeda operatives. Furthermore, North Korea now has nuclear capabilities (thankfully their leader is a rational, cool-tempered, peaceful, kind of guy... ooh whoops, i meant the exact opposite of that).
further, all the troops we diverted to iraq left no troops for afghanistan, and shit started going awry over there. now we are fighting a war in pakistan to go after the taliban. and if the mujahadeen... end up getting control of pakistan's fledgling and attenuated government, they will have access to nuclear weapons, and a good amount of them actually. So the terrorists could easily get their hands on nuclear weapons (since they comprise the majority of the mujahadeen). and what makes you feel more safe and cozy in your bed than people who hate you and our willing to die to kill you having these weapons of considerable lethality and a lack of inhibition to use them. I get bunny rabbits in my stomach just thinking about it.

so bottom line, quit bitching about the size of the 800 billion... it cannot, absolutely cannon do any worse than what the 800 billion dollars you spent before did for us... in fact, maybe it'll even do us some good... who knows...


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